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Three and out?

Those who have followed the markets in the last few years know that every bump in the road is just temporary. The markets are strong, bullish, and show almost no sign of slowing down. Or do they? This economic cycle has lasted quite a long time. It took time to get to full steam, as central banks all around the world have had to fuel the market with a lot of cheap money throughout the last decade. Eventually, things have

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Alexa, is Amazon Going to Rule the World?

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the Big Four –  Apple, Amazon, Google, and Facebook – the four largest companies in the world in terms of market capitalization and probably power and success. Lately, there is an alive and kicking discussion on whether these four should be stopped somehow. While Google, Facebook and Apple control industries that are relatively easy to “break” (advertising and consumer electronics), Amazon controls two industries -retail and cloud computing, and at least as far

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What Can We Expect from the U.S. Dollar in 2018?

The U.S Dollar had its first yearly decline in 2017 after five strong years, and now analysts are wondering whether the dollar will stage a comeback in 2018. You can hear predictions in favor of both sides – some assume that the interest rate hikes of the Federal Reserve will be the difference maker, while others see the European Central Bank stop feeding the markets with easy money, allowing the Euro to keep its relative strength vs. the dollar. But

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Breaking the Big Four

Once, the Big Four was a term used to describe the biggest accounting firms. Today, it is widely used to describe the biggest firms, overall. The Big Four are Apple, Amazon, Google, and Facebook (sometimes referred to as the Big Five, together with Microsoft) – the four largest companies in the world in terms of market capitalization (well, Microsoft is also there in the middle) but most importantly, in terms of influence, power and success. These companies have something in

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Market Cap to GDP – a Somewhat Overlooked Indicator

One way to check if the market cap of American publicly traded companies has not disconnected altogether from their real incremental value is comparing their market cap to the total GDP. This ratio can be used to understand whether the market is overvalued – in the U.S, the lion share of the companies are publicly traded, at least the big ones, thus we can expect to find a correlation between both the movement and the size of the stock market

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2017 in Numbers

This year has not yet ended, but we all know that nothing too important happens during the holiday. The financial world is mostly on vacation, volumes in the market are very low, and trading stocks takes a backseat for most people. The decision-makers are also on vacation—the interest rate decision for this month has already been made, and tax reform talks will probably stagnate during the break. So, we can now summarize the year that’s about to end. So, how’s

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Accuracy of Economic Projections

The current year is about to end, and economic papers are full of predictions for 2018. In general, most are pretty good. The world economy is in the midst of a mini-boom, and most economies are growing fast but not too fast. Unemployment is relatively low, and the inflammatory pressures are being held in check. The growth in GDP has accelerated lately, and the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund for global growth is 3.6% for 2017 and 3.7%

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Have I Changed My Mind About Bitcoin?

Well, no, why would I? What has changed fundamentally about Bitcoin? When I wrote a post about cryptocurrencies four months ago, the price of bitcoin was $2,400. Now it’s $11,000, but does it change anything in my thesis? Absolutely not. The risks of the bitcoin are still too high to be considered negligible, and the price of bitcoin is still on a roller-coaster that no one knows when or how it will reach its last stop. The only thing that

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The Secret Sauce of the German Economy

A few weeks ago a new episode of the famous podcast of Freakonomics dealt with an extremely interesting question—what makes the German economy so successful? Freakonomics is an American podcast and dealt with the issue from an American point of view. It raised certain issues, such as identifying the secrets of the German economy and discussing whether or not America should steal some of them (or copy them). http://freakonomics.com/podcast/secrets-german-economy-steal/ First of all, what are the secrets of the German economy?

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The Goldilocks Economy

Goldilocks and the Three Bears is not only a fairy tale but also a term used to describe the state of the global economy today. A Goldilocks economy is an economy that is somewhere between the tides—not too high and not too low—and that is what makes it sustainable. How can the economy remain in this Goldilocks position? Growth—first, the economy needs to grow but at a moderate pace so as not to become overheated, which can affect the second point—relatively low inflation.

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