Market Cap to GDP – a Somewhat Overlooked Indicator

One way to check if the market cap of American publicly traded companies has not disconnected altogether from their real incremental value is comparing their market cap to the total GDP. This ratio can be used to understand whether the market is overvalued – in the U.S, the lion share of the companies are publicly traded, at least the big ones, thus we can expect to find a correlation between both the movement and the size of the stock market

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2017 in Numbers

This year has not yet ended, but we all know that nothing too important happens during the holiday. The financial world is mostly on vacation, volumes in the market are very low, and trading stocks takes a backseat for most people. The decision-makers are also on vacation—the interest rate decision for this month has already been made, and tax reform talks will probably stagnate during the break. So, we can now summarize the year that’s about to end. So, how’s

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Accuracy of Economic Projections

The current year is about to end, and economic papers are full of predictions for 2018. In general, most are pretty good. The world economy is in the midst of a mini-boom, and most economies are growing fast but not too fast. Unemployment is relatively low, and the inflammatory pressures are being held in check. The growth in GDP has accelerated lately, and the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund for global growth is 3.6% for 2017 and 3.7%

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Have I Changed My Mind About Bitcoin?

Well, no, why would I? What has changed fundamentally about Bitcoin? When I wrote a post about cryptocurrencies four months ago, the price of bitcoin was $2,400. Now it’s $11,000, but does it change anything in my thesis? Absolutely not. The risks of the bitcoin are still too high to be considered negligible, and the price of bitcoin is still on a roller-coaster that no one knows when or how it will reach its last stop. The only thing that

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