Accuracy of Economic Projections

The current year is about to end, and economic papers are full of predictions for 2018. In general, most are pretty good. The world economy is in the midst of a mini-boom, and most economies are growing fast but not too fast. Unemployment is relatively low, and the inflammatory pressures are being held in check. The growth in GDP has accelerated lately, and the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund for global growth is 3.6% for 2017 and 3.7%

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Why is it So Easy to Beat Wall Street Expectations?

Last Friday was one of the best days for capital markets in recent years and especially so for those holding some tech stocks, which gained the most. The Nasdaq 100 rose by almost 3%, led by technology juggernauts, such as Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Intel. All of them beat the “Street Expectation,” which is a term used to describe the average estimate for a company’s quarterly revenues, earnings, and other important financial data that a public company has to report

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A Bubble with no one to blame

This is how a bubble with no address looks like. A new article by The Economist focuses on a less spoken aspect of the recent potential bubble in the stock market – Unlike previous bubbles, all assets are expensive today. People cannot place their money in reasonably prices financial vehicles, because none of them is. We keep hearing about the run of the stock market, but real estate and fixed income markets have had great runs as well, and solid

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What if NBA teams were stocks?

The NBA season has just started, which made me want to try to combine two of my favorite things—sports and capital markets. The NBA has 30 teams, and guess who also has 30 something? The Dow Jones. They both have tradition. While the NBA league was founded in New York in 1946, the Dow Jones had been founded 50 years before, also in New York. What’s more interesting is that they both have a relatively steady list of teams/stocks. The

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What’s the difference between stocks and poker?

When I first entered the stock market, I used to think I could beat it. I thought I could pick the best stocks and see the value of my account increasing every day, and this same feeling affects most people in the market. This is also what happens to most people at a poker table. Sometimes you just need to lose some money to get rid of your arrogance. The problem is that by listening to news from the stock

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