Market Cap to GDP – a Somewhat Overlooked Indicator

One way to check if the market cap of American publicly traded companies has not disconnected altogether from their real incremental value is comparing their market cap to the total GDP. This ratio can be used to understand whether the market is overvalued – in the U.S, the lion share of the companies are publicly traded, at least the big ones, thus we can expect to find a correlation between both the movement and the size of the stock market

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2017 in Numbers

This year has not yet ended, but we all know that nothing too important happens during the holiday. The financial world is mostly on vacation, volumes in the market are very low, and trading stocks takes a backseat for most people. The decision-makers are also on vacation—the interest rate decision for this month has already been made, and tax reform talks will probably stagnate during the break. So, we can now summarize the year that’s about to end. So, how’s

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Have I Changed My Mind About Bitcoin?

Well, no, why would I? What has changed fundamentally about Bitcoin? When I wrote a post about cryptocurrencies four months ago, the price of bitcoin was $2,400. Now it’s $11,000, but does it change anything in my thesis? Absolutely not. The risks of the bitcoin are still too high to be considered negligible, and the price of bitcoin is still on a roller-coaster that no one knows when or how it will reach its last stop. The only thing that

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What’s the difference between stocks and poker?

When I first entered the stock market, I used to think I could beat it. I thought I could pick the best stocks and see the value of my account increasing every day, and this same feeling affects most people in the market. This is also what happens to most people at a poker table. Sometimes you just need to lose some money to get rid of your arrogance. The problem is that by listening to news from the stock

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Financial Bubble

What is a financial bubble? How does it evolve? How can we protect ourselves from a bubble? I will try to answer these questions in this post, as this subject is always relevant but somewhat more relevant today when some assets are being traded near all-time high levels. A financial bubble (or economic bubble) happens when the price (e.g., market value) of an asset greatly exceeds its fundamental value, which is the value according to standard economic methods of valuation,

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